Gibt es eine Primärprävention schizophrener Psychosen?1

TL;DRAbstract

At first, this article comprises the innovative programme of the international "Early Detection and Intervention" research and then shows results of the "Cologne/Bonn Early Recognition - CER" project on schizophrenia, the first longterm prospective study on patients in potentially initial prodromal stages prior to the first psychotic manifestation. At re-examination at an average of 9.6 years later, 79 of 160 patients had subsequently developed a schizophrenic psychosis according to DSM-IV criteria. Prediction values for the complete range of prodromal symptoms, for 5 subsyndromes and for individual symptoms were assessed. Best prediction values with a high positive predictive power (71 - 91 %) and a low rate of false-positive predictions (7.5 - 1.9 %) were achieved for 10 symptoms and symptom complexes mainly out of the group of thought, speech and perception disturbances. As only unsatisfactory prediction values for other prodromal symptom definitions were reported, e.g. the commonly

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