An Economic Analysis and Econometric Investigation of Ordinary and Hypercongestion

TL;DRAbstract

The literature on the economics of road congestion has not resolved issues about the correct basis for understanding and measuring the related externalities and there does not appear to be an accepted theory of hypercongestion. Thus, the ambition of this thesis has been to develop an economic model that attempts to resolve these issues and provide a basis on which to estimate marginal external congestion time costs. The new model is based on the view that it is density of road users that causes congestion and a multiperiod model is required to analyse the implied dynamic behaviour. It is shown how the theory relates to the standard speed-flow analysis. Importantly, the conventional speed flow model does deal correctly with a stationary state condition where speeds and flows are constant over time. However, when speed and density vary across time, the conventional model can be reworked in a density multiperiod framework to give an appropriate and correct analysis of the congestion exter

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