Model conceptualisation of the Western Australian agricultural region. Part 2: system dynamics

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… social systems are inherently insensitive to most policy changes that people choose in an effort to alter the behavior of systems. In fact, social systems draw attention to the very points at which an attempt to intervene fails. Human intuition develops from exposure to simple systems. In simple systems, the cause of a trouble is close in both time and space to symptoms of trouble. However, in complex dynamic systems, causes are often far removed both in time and space from symptoms. True causes may lie far back in time and arise from an entirely different part of the system from when and where the symptoms occur. However, the complex system can mislead in devious ways by presenting an apparent cause that meets the expectations derived from simple systems. However, the apparent causes are usually coincident occurrences that, like the trouble symptom itself, are being produced by the feedback loop dynamics of a larger system.Jay W. Forrester, 1995

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