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Book Chapter10.1017/cbo9780511814679.005

CREATING AN EXPERT MODEL OF THE RISK

M. Granger Morgan,Baruch Fischhoff,Ann Bostrom,Cynthia J. Atman-2001-07-30-Cambridge University Press eBooks
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TL;DRAbstract

If communications are to be authoritative, they must reflect expert understanding. To that end, the first step in developing risk communications is creating influence diagrams that summarize the relevant expert knowledge. As mentioned, although it is called an “expert model,” the information that it contains need not reside in the mind of any one expert, especially not in such explicit form. Indeed, the creation of an expert model can be a complex, creative act, forcing participating experts to reflect systematically on the structure of their domain.

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If communications are to be authoritative, they must reflect expert understanding. To that end, the first step in developing risk communications is creating influence diagrams that summarize the relevant expert knowledge. As mentioned, although it is called an “expert model,” the information that it contains need not reside in the mind of any one expert, especially not in such explicit form. Indeed, the creation of an expert model can be a complex, creative act, forcing participating experts to reflect systematically on the structure of their domain.

Keywords

Expert systemSubject-matter expertLegal expert systemDomain (mathematical analysis)Computer scienceForcing (mathematics)Knowledge managementDomain knowledge

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