Dynamiques épidémiques, risques et copules

TL;DRAbstract

The stochastic classical models include linear interactions copulas, expressing in general pair interactions. It is planned to extend these models to nonlinear interactions of saturation type or triplet type, to treat realistic applications, as the epidemics diffusions.The aim of this thesis is to apply the copulas functions in epidemiology, and especially to apply these functions in the transmission system of malaria to detect the dependence existing between compartments of the epidemic system. We will study some compartmental models, which are a generalization of the Ross-Macdonald model, assuming that the population is not constant and taking into account the transmission parameters such as fertility, mortality, etc. Also, we will introduce the age classes in some of these compartmental models, and study the relationships between individuals of these age classes, using the Cox model and the copulas functions. Then, we will give two examples of these models: the Malaria in Mali and t

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