Application of a methodology for evaluation of intertechnology tradeoffs: an illustrative case study

TL;DRAbstract

The problem is to select the best R and D strategy for developing long-term energy technologies that use coal. Best is defined in terms of 11 attributes, or measures of performance. Uncertainties were determined for the many, complex outcomes that may result from each strategy, and the information was systematically structured for evaluation. Preferences for the various outcomes were quantified by assessing a multi-attribute utility function over the 11 single attributes. The best alternative was chosen using maximization of expected utility as a guide. Extensive sensitivity analyses showed that one strategy, evolutionary development, was best over a wide range of plausible assumptions. This is partly because the alternative coal technologies are quite similar. However, the insights gained justify the extra effort spent in doing the utility analysis.

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