Medium-range numerical prediction of Antarctic sea ice

TL;DRAbstract

This research investigates the use of a multiple-thickness sea-ice model for opera- tional Antarctic sea-ice forecasts. Deterministic predictions are generated with a finite difference sea-ice model for the Southern Ocean. The forecast model includes a new method for ridging sea ice on semi-diurnal timescales and includes a modified Coulombic rheology. This approach differs from formalistic techniques used in existing thickness distribution models, and is introduced to simulate oriented fractures with multiple thickness- categories. Behaviour of the dynamic component of the model is assessed on a test grid to illustrate its properties and numerical limitations. The dynamic component is then combined with a constant salinity, enthalpy-conserving thermodynamic model on a 50 km resolution polar stereographic grid using 11 thickness categories to simulate circum-Antarctic sea ice. Sea-ice assimilations are generated for observation intensive years (1992 and 1996) to compare model output wi

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