The past and future climatic suitability of arabica coffee (Coffea arabica L.) in East Africa.

TL;DRAbstract

Coffea arabica (arabica coffee) is a socially and economically important commodity crop in countries throughout East Africa. The distribution and productivity of coffee is dependent upon climate, the environment, and socio-economic factors. Previous studies involving a wide range of plant and animal species have shown that climatic changes affect species distributions. Global circulation models suggest climatic change over the next century, and predict warmer temperatures, and increasingly variable precipitation in East Africa. Whilst several studies have modelled the potential impacts of future climatic change on global food crops, there is a lack of information on the potential suitability and likely productivity of arabica coffee in East Africa. Using information from previous studies this study suggested optimal and tolerable climatic thresholds of mean annual temperature, and total precipitation, for arabica coffee. Using a bioclimatic envelope model, the past, present, and future

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