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Forecast Reviews and Case Studies.

Kenneth E. German-1979-05-01-Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC)
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TL;DRAbstract

One of the most effective ways of improving weather forecasting performance is the forecast review (sometimes called bust review). The forecast review improves the effectiveness of the forecaster who does not review and it is helpful to others who forecast for the station. Even through the benefits are nearly universally acclaimed, staff visits often find that the forecast review programs fall far short of this ideal. One of the reasons often given is that there is inadequate guidance available concerning the content of a good foreast review and how to judge its effectiveness. This technical note is written to help meet this need. This technical note discusses forecast reviews and provides several examples that can be used by forecasters who want ideas to use in documenting their forecast reviews.

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One of the most effective ways of improving weather forecasting performance is the forecast review (sometimes called bust review). The forecast review improves the effectiveness of the forecaster who does not review and it is helpful to others who forecast for the station. Even through the benefits are nearly universally acclaimed, staff visits often find that the forecast review programs fall far short of this ideal. One of the reasons often given is that there is inadequate guidance available concerning the content of a good foreast review and how to judge its effectiveness. This technical note is written to help meet this need. This technical note discusses forecast reviews and provides several examples that can be used by forecasters who want ideas to use in documenting their forecast reviews.

Keywords

BustConsensus forecastComputer scienceOperations researchActuarial scienceManagement scienceRisk analysis (engineering)Economics

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