Impacts of environmental-protection policies on long-range energy supplies

TL;DRAbstract

This paper presents the results of a systematic analysis of the impacts of US policies relating to environmental protection on the costs of meeting national and worldwide energy demands to the year 2000. The analysis is based on the detailed development of successive future energy supply-demand balances for the US, Europe, Japan, and the LDC's, under various assumptions regarding future US policies. These balances account for the interplay over time of all forms of energy, as well as the world trade in oil, gas, and steam coal. The energy balances, the related costs, and their linkages to environmental policies were computed with the help of a large-scale mathematical modeling system (LORENDAS). These computations indicate that continuation of the current trends limiting US energy developments will cost consumers over the next 20 years an amount equivalent to several years' GNP.

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