Model Selection and Uniqueness Analysis for Reservoir History Matching

TL;DRAbstract

“History matching” (model calibration, parameter identification) is an established method for determination of representative reservoir properties such as permeability, porosity, relative permeability and fault transmissibility from a measured production history; however the uniqueness of selected model is always a challenge in a successful history matching. Up to now, the uniqueness of history matching results in practice can be assessed only after individual and technical experience and/or by repeating history matching with different reservoir models (different sets of parameters as the starting guess). The present study has been used the stochastical theory of Kullback & Leibler (K-L) and its further development by Akaike (AIC) for the first time to solve the uniqueness problem in reservoir engineering. In addition - based on the AIC principle and the principle of parsimony - a penalty term for OF has been empirically formulated regarding geoscientific and technical considerations.

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