Conceptually-based multivariate simulation of monthly runoff

TL;DRAbstract

Abstract: This paper presents a multivariate extension of a parsimonious conceptually-based Auto Regressive-Moving Average (ARMA) stochastic model for monthly runoff. The multi-station model is a Contemporaneous-ARMA (CARMA), which considers separately the serial and space correlation of runoff. Serial correlation is reproduced in individual series by an ARMA model. The ARMA model residuals are uncorrelated in time but correlated in space. Spatial correlation of runoff is then reproduced by generating correlated series of residuals and using them to generate runoff through the individual ARMA models. In the conceptual framework, stochastic ARMA parameters are related to the parameters of a linear system, which represents the watershed filter that produces runoff. The system input is the effective rainfall, which is inversely estimated through the ARMA model residual. Application of the CARMA model in the conceptual framework consists in reproducing the spatial correlation on the effect

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