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Diversion-resistance assessment bases. Interim report

Martin Campbell,J.L. Jaech,L.E. Hansen,R. Nilson,Ronald Schneider,R.E. Tomlinson-1982-11-01-OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information)
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TL;DRAbstract

This document describes a logical approach to diversion resistance assessment methodology. A combination of objective attribute assessments and subjective evaluations based upon a composite expert opinion is advocated. The objective approach shows where to look and the subjective approach provides an integrated assessment. For the objective attribute valuation, three attributes were considered: the plutonium density; the gamma energy attribute of plutonium as a function of purification and concentration; and the difficulty of converting the diverted material into a bomb. The product of these three objective measures is called the attribute factor. A subjective evaluation was achieved using the expert group Delphi process. This process takes note of the attribute factor and goes further by considering the interacting values of the process, operating procedures, scheduling and safeguards-physical security plans. As a base case, the Delphi was applied to the NFRRC reprocessing plant desig

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This document describes a logical approach to diversion resistance assessment methodology. A combination of objective attribute assessments and subjective evaluations based upon a composite expert opinion is advocated. The objective approach shows where to look and the subjective approach provides an integrated assessment. For the objective attribute valuation, three attributes were considered: the plutonium density; the gamma energy attribute of plutonium as a function of purification and concentration; and the difficulty of converting the diverted material into a bomb. The product of these three objective measures is called the attribute factor. A subjective evaluation was achieved using the expert group Delphi process. This process takes note of the attribute factor and goes further by considering the interacting values of the process, operating procedures, scheduling and safeguards-physical security plans. As a base case, the Delphi was applied to the NFRRC reprocessing plant desig

Keywords

InterimDelphi methodExpert opinionDelphiValuation (finance)Process (computing)Knowledge baseEngineering

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