Metody uwzględniania ryzyka w modelach decyzyjnych opartych na teorii gier

TL;DRAbstract

This is a comparative analysis of most frequent types of decision made under conditions of uncertainty or risk and their usefulness in economic and agricultural research. Frequently we have to decide having incomplete knowledge or knowing that the outcome of these decisions is uncertain. Here the decision making process is considered as an evaluation of alternative decisions under alternative states of nature and the ever present problem of uncertainty, In the introduction there is a precise definition of risk and uncertainty and the differences between them. There is a number of different approaches to reach a suitable decision having and not having information as to the probabilities of different states of nature. The choice of a single strategy in linear models was made according to the maximax and maxmin criterion of Hurwicz, Savage, Bayes-Laplace and Hodge-Lehmann. These criterions were applied for the same basic data consisting of three grains in five levels of weather.

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