Intuitive and Usable Risk-Based Cost Contingency Estimation Model for General Contracting Firms

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Intuitive and Usable Risk-Based Cost Contingency Estimation Model for General Contracting Firms Javier Ordonez; Borinara Park Pages 193-198 (2011 Proceedings of the 28th ISARC, Seoul, Korea, ISBN 978-89-954572-4-5, ISSN 2413-5844) Abstract: Construction projects inherently possess uncertainties, which represent risks and opportunities to contracting business entities. Their business success, therefore, is largely defined by how these uncertainties are managed from the planning and estimating to execution phases. Traditionally risks, in particular, have been dealt by converting them into the form of a contingency. Ironically, however, cost estimators have relied on deterministic ways of predicting project cost by producing point estimates. Moreover, contingencies have been typically determined as a percentage of the project cost. This practice is not enough to assess the impact of the project uncertainties. To remedy this situation, researchers have developed various analytical models,

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