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Article10.6119/jmst-011-1116-1

Rainfall Prediction Using Innovative Grey Model with the Dynamic Index

Yong‐Huang Lin,Chih-Chiang Chiu,Yong-Jun Lin,Pin‐Chan Lee-2013-02-01
13

TL;DRAbstract

Taiwan's special climate and landforms are affected by summer typhoons, with 78% of its rainfall occurring during the summer and autumn months. The range and the severity of disasters has increased in recent years, thanks in part to climate change, which has caused an unstable rainfall. Accurate rainfall predictions help to forecast rivers' water levels. This study proposes a new rainfall prediction model based on features of the rainfall system. In order to overcome the drawbacks found in the original grey model, a few corrections have been made to the new model. First, the dynamic index transformation is used to generate an exponentially smooth sequence. When the new model was applied to data from eight different typhoons, the results revealed that the mean peak rainfall error, compared to the original sequences, is close to 0. This technique can also effectively increase the accuracy of maximum rainfall predictions. Next, the grey model's background value was improved through integr

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Taiwan's special climate and landforms are affected by summer typhoons, with 78% of its rainfall occurring during the summer and autumn months. The range and the severity of disasters has increased in recent years, thanks in part to climate change, which has caused an unstable rainfall. Accurate rainfall predictions help to forecast rivers' water levels. This study proposes a new rainfall prediction model based on features of the rainfall system. In order to overcome the drawbacks found in the original grey model, a few corrections have been made to the new model. First, the dynamic index transformation is used to generate an exponentially smooth sequence. When the new model was applied to data from eight different typhoons, the results revealed that the mean peak rainfall error, compared to the original sequences, is close to 0. This technique can also effectively increase the accuracy of maximum rainfall predictions. Next, the grey model's background value was improved through integr

Keywords

TyphoonExponential smoothingPredictabilityEnvironmental scienceAutoregressive integrated moving averageRange (aeronautics)Exponential functionClimatology

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