PHASER user`s manual version 2.10

TL;DRAbstract

PHASER (Probabilistic Hybrid Analytical System Evaluation Routine) is a computer code for solving the top event probability of a system fault tree. It has the capability for easy migration of individual basic event probabilities from a zero-{open_quotes}scale{close_quotes}-factor (completely subjective) state to one in which the analyst has total knowledge (completely stochastic) about each basic event. The code implements a fuzzy algebra solution for subjective data, a probabilistic solution for stochastic data, and a hybrid mathematics solution for data that are partly subjective and partly stochastic. Events that are not completely subjective or completely stochastic are hybrid events and are internally handled as such. The stochastic and fuzzy ranges of uncertainty in the top event probability are also computed for the analyst. These are provided in the form of a fuzzy function for the subjective uncertainty, a probability density function (PDF) for the stochastic variability, and

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