Précision d’extrapolation des éphémérides des objets du système solaire : application aux satellites de Saturne

TL;DRAbstract

The accuracy of the predicted orbital positions depends on the quality of the theorical model (internal error) and of the observations used to fit the model (external error). The internal error is often well known and generally good. However, the external error is generally unknown and is the main cause of the global error. The accuracy of an ephemeris can be estimated by comparison with observations (O-C) but just during the observational period. Outside the observational period, particularly in the future, the estimation of the accuracy remains difficult. The main purpose is to highlight statistical methods in order to estimate the accuracy of an ephemeris at any time. We deal particularly with two of the eight major Saturnian satellites but the case of an asteroid is also studied. We show that one of the methods, the bootstrap resampling, is easy to implement and allows this estimation with minimal assumptions on the distribution of observation errors. The determination of this accu

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