Identifying risk for the electricity grid: A GIS-based simulation model of the local diffusion of electric vehicles

TL;DRAbstract

The electrification of transport is a promising option for the transition to a low carbon energy and transport system. But in the near future when promising technological solutions for grid capacity problems such as vehicle-to-grid and smart-grids are not yet (on a large scale) available, the rapid growth and the moment of recharging could create risks for the reliability and functioning of the grid. To assess these risks this paper present a new GIS-based simulation method that assesses the demand and supply on a smaller scale. This paper combines local level diffusion forecast (estimated from current local diffusion and neighbourhood characteristics), with local level data about the grid additional capacity. The case study of the Netherlands shows the local differences of these risks. Already in 2015 the adoption of electric vehicles could create risks for the functioning of the grid, especially in high urban areas such as the neighbourhoods of Amsterdam. This is explained by the fac

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